« Elections in DRC: Kabila will remain Joséph he in power? Getting to 2016. The assumptions elections in July and October 2006 marked the end of a particularly dramatic decade in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). She scored two wars (1996-1997 and 1998-2002) and a complex peace process which culminated in a transition period marked by a delicate balancing act between the former armed groups. The election was organized by an independent electoral commission headed by a meadow near the current may be representing the civil society, the pay. Joseph Kabila, who succeeded his father Laurent Kabila was assassinated in January 2001, was sworn in December 6, 2006 as the first elected president of the Third Republic. The 2006 elections were the first free multiparty elections, and relatively fair, since independence. Subsequent elections, held in November 2011, took place at the end of the first legislature »

To date, most people from the nearest circle of J. Kabila qu'Aubin Minaku believe has the best access to the President.Minaku today occupies a very strategic in the Congolese political universe.He is President of Parliament, Secretary General of the presidential majority and with Kengo wa Dondo, co-organizer of the National Consultations.Kabila can count on him and he is one of the best graduates of the school of the former political advisor of the president, Augustin Katumba Mwanke (died 2012).It is also the West.You can count against him the fact that he does not benefit from its own popular base, despite the good results of the unexpected speed in Bandundu, his home province, in 2011. The Bandundu was, however, one of provinces where the results have been the most controversial.Obviously, many people feel they have the wingspan of a presidential candidate, including Prime Minister Augustin Matata Ponyo, the Secretary General of the PPRD (People's Party for Reconstruction, Kabila's party) Evariste Boshab and Communication Minister Lambert Mende.The problem with this scenario is the great difficulty of identifying a candidate with the consent of the majority, continue to close ranks and to represent the interests of different antagonistic groups forming the pillars of the Kabila regime.The process of designating an heir would, of course, a very complex and very painful exercise - many are equipped with presidential ambitions.Kabila could probably even initiate and lead this effort, but it is very unlikely that the decision could be made by a single individual.Many variables should be taken into account, including regional balances.The president could take the initiative to amend Article 220 of the Constitution and change the number and / or duration of mandates.This theoretically would give him the chance to remain president.This option was suggested several times within the Congolese majority and the circle of Kabila.Many observers do not exclude the possibility that Kabila does not believe that the time has come to enact such an amendment, and he can look at another time of the current legislature.We can not exclude that it can tolerate or even shake himself the "trial balloon" to see if there is a realistic possibility for him to remain in power after 2016. The main question seems to be whether or not such a scenario can gather sufficient support within the presidential majority and even within the PPRD.It could do so because of credible financial and logistical problems hindering the electoral process.The organization of local elections could absorb almost all of the budget for the elections, which would make it impossible to organize in time for the presidential polls.This scenario seems to have been fully developed by the president of the CENI electoral commission, Apollinaire Malu Malu.The organization of local elections is the first step of the process and the indirect elections of deputies, senators and governors of the provinces would strengthen the PPRD since it is the only party with national ambitions able to mobilize 18,000 candidates to cover the whole territory.Accelerate the decentralization process is another possible strategy, including the redistribution of the 11 current provinces of Congo at 26, provided for in the Constitution of 2005. This redistribution will redefine the balance of power between ethnic groups and economic interests and will be a source of tensions, competition and potentially violence in different places.Malu Malu and his team, the 26 provinces are the backbone of their organizational structure.The CENI has 26 provincial secretariats.It has recently drawn up a draft mapping Bandundu province, which acts as the pilot project: 200 officers worked for three months at the collection of geographic data, sociological and customary.It is realistic to expect that Kabila decides at some point that he prefers to remain as president because he thinks that his departure would make the country vulnerable.There are an influential group within the PPRD trying to convince him to stay.In recent weeks and recent months, there has been much speculation giving rise to fascinating launching a trial balloon by politicians and other public figures in the media, from personal initiatives or an intentional leak, to gauge the reaction of the local and international public opinion.It is unlikely that this will be done without the tacit agreement of Kabila, but until then openly provided no support for these ideas and these initiatives.